兴都库什-喜马拉雅（HKH）是全球对气候变化最敏感的山地区域之一。夏季风对该地区的水资源供给、农业生产和水文气象灾害具有重要影响。因此，高分辨率次季节-季节（S2S）预测对该地区的灾害风险防范、水资源管理和农业规划具有重要意义。本数据集由中国科学院大气物理研究所（IAP，CAS）研发的无缝预测系统生成。该系统基于FGOALS-f2气候系统模式，通过FGOALS-UFS拉伸网格模式对目标区域进行动力降尺度，使水平分辨率精细到约20 km。回报试验覆盖2010-2024年，每次起报包含8个集合成员；2026年夏季风实时预测包含49个集合成员。每次预报的时效为130天。数据集包含54个气象变量，重点为降水和2 m气温，并以NetCDF格式提供3小时、6小时、日、候和月等不同时间分辨率的数据。基于该数据集开展的2026年夏季风初步预测表明，南亚和兴都库什-喜马拉雅大部分地区可能出现降水偏少和气温偏高0.5-2 ℃的状况，意味着干旱、高温热浪和水资源短缺风险上升；与此同时，局地强降水仍可能引发洪水、山体滑坡和冰湖溃决洪水。本数据集为兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区的次季节-季节预测研究、区域气候服务和基于风险的决策提供了高分辨率集合预测资料。", "ds_source": "", "ds_process_way": "", "ds_quality": "", "ds_acq_start_time": "2010-05-25 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2026-05-25 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区", "ds_acq_lon_east": 104.0, "ds_acq_lat_south": 3.0, "ds_acq_lon_west": 57.0, "ds_acq_lat_north": 45.0, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "login-access", "ds_total_size": 498540115912, "ds_files_count": 0, "ds_format": "*.nc", "ds_space_res": "20km", "ds_time_res": "6小时、每日、每候和每月", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "5dfaae66-7e6f-450a-8059-c645a5f43110.jpg", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "None", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "27c4cf3e-64f6-4925-95e2-8a868a4a9346", "ds_serv_man": null, "ds_serv_phone": null, "ds_serv_mail": null, "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170" ], "quality_level": 0, "publish_time": "2026-09-29 11:02:03", "last_updated": "2026-09-29 15:01:19", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "11738.11.ncdc.db7809.2026", "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Hindu Kush Himalayan Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hindcast–Forecast Dataset", "ds_format": "", "ds_source": "", "ds_quality": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_abstract": "
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the world’s most climate-sensitive mountain regions, where the summer monsoon strongly influences water availability, agricultural production, and hydrometeorological hazards. High-resolution subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is therefore important for disaster risk reduction, water-resource management, and agricultural planning across the region. This dataset was generated using the seamless prediction system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS). The system combines the FGOALS-f2 fully coupled climate model with dynamical downscaling using the FGOALS-UFS stretched-grid model, providing a horizontal resolution of approximately 20 km over the target region. The hindcast covers 2010-2024, with eight ensemble members for each initialization, while the 2026 real-time summer monsoon forecast comprises 49 forecasts. Each forecast extends to a lead time of 130 days. The dataset contains 54 meteorological variables, with a primary focus on precipitation and 2 m temperature, and is provided in NetCDF format at 3-hourly, 6-hourly, daily, dekadal, and monthly frequencies. An initial application to the 2026 summer monsoon indicates predominantly below-normal precipitation and temperature anomalies of 0.5-2 °C above normal across much of South Asia and the HKH, implying elevated risks of drought, heatwaves, and water stress, while localized heavy rainfall may still trigger floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods. The dataset provides a high-resolution ensemble resource for S2S research, regional climate services, and risk-informed decision-making across the HKH.", "ds_time_res": "6-hourly, daily, dekadal, and monthly", "ds_acq_place": "", "ds_space_res": "20km", "ds_projection": "", "ds_process_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "" } }, "submit_center_id": "ncdc", "data_level": 0, "recommendation_value": 0, "license_type": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "belong_to_nieer": false, "allow_update_data": false, "created_from": "uc", "ds_topic_tags": [ "兴都库什-喜马拉雅", "次季节到季节预测", "拉伸网格动力降尺度", "南亚季风", "气候数据集" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "地球科学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "兴都库什-喜马拉雅" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2026 ], "ds_contributors": [ { "true_name": "包庆", "email": "baoqing@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "姜方海", "email": "jiangfh@lasg.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "Bikash Nepal", "email": "bikash@lasg.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal;", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "Manish Shrestha", "email": "Shrestha.Manish@icimod.org", "work_for": "International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "Sarthak Shrestha", "email": "Sarthak.Shrestha@icimod.org", "work_for": "International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "冯学超", "email": "fengxuechao@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "刘鸿波", "email": "hongboliu@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "Rongkun Liu", "email": "Rongkun.Liu@icimod.org", "work_for": "International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)", "country": "中国" } ], "ds_meta_authors": [ { "true_name": "包庆", "email": "baoqing@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "姜方海", "email": "jiangfh@lasg.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "冯学超", "email": "fengxuechao@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "刘鸿波", "email": "hongboliu@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" } ], "ds_managers": [ { "true_name": "刘鸿波", "email": "hongboliu@mail.iap.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院大气物理研究所", "country": "中国" } ], "category": "气象" }