本数据集覆盖2021–2050年中国北方地区，预估了未来高排放情景RCP8.5（Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5）下荒漠化的可能趋势。利用CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5）–CESM（Community Earth System Model）未来RCP8.5情景的数据作为初、边界条件，驱动WRF4.2（Weather Research & Forecasting Model version 4.2）模式对中国北方地区进行未来30年（2021–2050）的模拟，预估未来中国北方荒漠化趋势。", "ds_source": "
本数据集中模式运行的数据来源：\n
1. CMIP5–CESM未来RCP8.5情景的数据取自https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214110967-SCIOPS.html#；\n
2. WRF4.2模式下载网址https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources_new.php。", "ds_process_way": "
评估WRF4.2模式对中国北方历史时期（1972–2000）荒漠化的再现能力，确定模式设置（包括各个物理过程参数化方案选择、网格分辨率、积分步长等）。利用CMIP5–CESM未来RCP8.5情景下每6小时的数据作为初、边界条件，驱动WRF4.2模式对中国北方地区进行未来30年（2021–2050）的区域气候动力降尺度模拟，并结合沙丘移动指数，以历史时期（1972–2000）平均作为参考，计算得到了未来中国北方荒漠化的逐年演变趋势。", "ds_quality": "
对比观测和Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6（CMIP6）多模式平均的结果，WRF4.2模式对基本气候要素的模拟与观测更为接近，WRF4.2较好地再现了气温变化空间非均一特征；WRF模拟结果明显减小了CMIP6对中国北方地区降水模拟偏大的误差，WRF4.2模式对中国北方地区过去29年（1972–2000）基本气候要素和荒漠化趋势有较好的再现能力，基于WRF4.2对中国北方未来荒漠化趋势的预估的不确定性较小。", "ds_acq_start_time": "2021-01-01 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2050-12-31 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "中国北方", "ds_acq_lon_east": 136.63, "ds_acq_lat_south": 30.63, "ds_acq_lon_west": 67.83, "ds_acq_lat_north": 54.730000000000004, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 763613978, "ds_files_count": 2, "ds_format": "NETCDF", "ds_space_res": "30km", "ds_time_res": "3小时,年", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "31ce433a-68fe-4b93-a834-be9f80943a4b.png", "ds_thumb_from": 2, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "6d0aa454-9b64-4be5-b0cd-4cc796e6aea0", "ds_serv_man": "李红星", "ds_serv_phone": "0931-4967592", "ds_serv_mail": "ncdc@lzb.ac.cn", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.45" ], "quality_level": 0, "publish_time": "2026-03-13 18:42:47", "last_updated": "2026-03-13 18:42:47", "protected": false, "protected_to": "2028-03-01 00:00:00", "lang": "zh", "cstr": "11738.11.NCDC.DESERTIFICATION.DB7174.2026", "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Dataset of Desertification Trends in Northern China over the Next 30 Years (2021-2050)", "ds_format": "NETCDF", "ds_source": "
The data source for the mode operation in this dataset is:\n
1. The data for CMIP5-CESM's future RCP8.5 scenario is taken from https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214110967-SCIOPS.html# ；\n
2. WRF4.2 mode download website https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources_new.php .", "ds_quality": "
Comparing the results of observation and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multimodal averaging, the WRF4.2 model simulates and observes basic climate elements more closely, and better reproduces the spatial heterogeneity of temperature changes; The WRF simulation results significantly reduced the error of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation in northern China. The WRF4.2 model has good reproducibility of basic climate elements and desertification trends in northern China over the past 29 years (1972-2000), and the uncertainty of predicting future desertification trends in northern China based on WRF4.2 is relatively small.", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_abstract": "
This dataset covers the northern region of China from 2021 to 2050 and estimates the possible trend of desertification under the future high emission scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). utilize CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5）–CESM（Community Earth System Model） The data from the future RCP8.5 scenario serves as initial and boundary conditions to drive the WRF4.2 (Weather Research & Forecasting Model version 4.2) model to simulate the desertification trend in northern China over the next 30 years (2021-2050).", "ds_time_res": "3小时,年", "ds_acq_place": "Northern China", "ds_space_res": "30km", "ds_projection": "", "ds_process_way": "
Evaluate the reproducibility of the WRF4.2 model for desertification in northern China during the historical period (1972-2000), and determine the model settings (including the selection of parameterization schemes for various physical processes, grid resolution, integration step size, etc.). Using data from CMIP5-CESM every 6 hours under the future RCP8.5 scenario as initial and boundary conditions, the WRF4.2 model was driven to conduct a downscaling simulation of regional climate dynamics in northern China for the next 30 years (2021-2050). Combined with the sand dune movement index and the historical period (1972-2000) average as a reference, the annual evolution trend of desertification in northern China was calculated.", "ds_ref_instruction": "" } }, "submit_center_id": "ncdc", "data_level": 0, "license_type": "CC BY 4.0", "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "ds_topic_tags": [ "荒漠化" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "地理学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "中国北方" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036, 2037, 2038, 2039, 2040, 2041, 2042, 2043, 2044, 2045, 2046, 2047, 2048, 2049, 2050 ], "ds_contributors": [ { "true_name": "杨凯", "email": "yangkai@lzu.edu.cn", "work_for": "兰州大学", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "杨金涛", "email": "yangjt20@lzu.edu.cn", "work_for": "兰州大学", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "王振亭", "email": "ztwang@lzb.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "张彩霞", "email": "zhangcaixia@lzb.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院", "country": "中国" } ], "ds_meta_authors": [ { "true_name": "杨凯", "email": "yangkai@lzu.edu.cn", "work_for": "兰州大学", "country": "中国" } ], "ds_managers": [ { "true_name": "杨凯", "email": "yangkai@lzu.edu.cn", "work_for": "兰州大学", "country": "中国" } ], "category": "沙漠与荒漠化" }