{
    "created": "2025-04-23 10:50:59",
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    "title_cn": "洪涝灾害及其衍生影响动态评估方法技术方案",
    "title_en": "Technical scheme for dynamic assessment method of flood disasters and their derivative impacts",
    "ds_abstract": "<p>&emsp;&emsp;本文主要介绍了洪涝灾害及其衍生影响的动态评估方法。研究首先提出了承灾体信息空间展布模型，通过网络大数据、模型构建等方法，对人口、GDP数据进行空间化分析，并以巢湖流域为例展示了结果。接着，提出了洪涝灾害直接损失动态评估方法，构建了洪涝灾害损失评估指标体系，并创新性提出混沌粒子群遗传算法（CPSGA）进行模型求解，评估结果显示在巢湖、滁河等多个流域的洪涝灾害损失评估精度均在90%以上。此外，研究还提出了基于复杂网络理论的洪涝灾害衍生影响演化网络，采用计算共现率的方法评估节点单元之间的联系强度，并构建了洪涝灾害衍生影响评估模型，利用贝叶斯网络量化各个节点事件所造成的后果严重性。通过对洪涝灾害及其衍生影响的动态评估，该研究为掌握洪涝灾害损失的动态发展规律、识别洪涝灾害损失的最大值以及进一步提升评估精度提供了重要方法支撑。",
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    "ds_serv_man": "李红星",
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    "publish_time": "2025-04-29 10:53:00",
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            "title": "Technical scheme for dynamic assessment method of flood disasters and their derivative impacts",
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    "ds_topic_tags": [
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    "ds_subject_tags": [
        "水文学"
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        "巢湖流域",
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