全球变暖背景下了解中国北方中部地区的干湿变化对深入研究历史气候事件具有重要科学意义。遴选已发表的24条与研究区的暖季（5-9月）干湿变化（自校准帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI）显著相关的气候代用指标序列，运用嵌套主成分回归法（nested PCR）重建了中国北方中部地区过去530（1470-2012）年的干湿气候变化，。", "ds_source": "
遴选代用指标序列包括12条树轮指标序列（11条宽度序列、1条氧同位素序列）和12条干湿序列（DWI）；哈思山、天祝样点序列采用树轮学年代学方法测量建立。", "ds_process_way": "
采用嵌套主成分回归法（nested PCR）将选入树轮、干湿指数以及亚洲干湿变化序列集成重建，以scPDSI格点校准；以时序叠加分析方法（SEA）检测极端干旱事件的机理。", "ds_quality": "
重建的暖季干湿序列与观测资料在1950-2012年间相关系数为0.89 (n = 63，p < 0.01)，空间相关系数接近0.6；采用RE, CE, R2和RMSE 统计值检验重建结果均通过显著水平； 重建的干湿序列识别出过去530年间年代际尺度的干旱事件。", "ds_acq_start_time": "1971-01-01 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2020-12-31 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "中国北方气象站点", "ds_acq_lon_east": 110.7, "ds_acq_lat_south": 33.57, "ds_acq_lon_west": 102.22, "ds_acq_lat_north": 39.38333333333333, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 54394, "ds_files_count": 2, "ds_format": "xlsx", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "年", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "c57677f0-d9e7-4a3d-b3f0-4efa2feef2f4.png", "ds_thumb_from": 2, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "Kang, S.; Liu, J.;Wang, J.Hydroclimate Variations across North-Central China during the Past 530 Years and Their Relationships with Atmospheric Oscillations. Forests 2023, 14, 640. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14030640", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "6d0aa454-9b64-4be5-b0cd-4cc796e6aea0", "ds_serv_man": "李红星", "ds_serv_phone": "0931-4967592", "ds_serv_mail": "ncdc@lzb.ac.cn", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.4510" ], "quality_level": 3, "publish_time": "2026-03-13 19:11:57", "last_updated": "2026-03-13 19:11:57", "protected": false, "protected_to": "2028-03-13 00:00:00", "lang": "zh", "cstr": "11738.11.NCDC.DESERTIFICATION.DB7168.2026", "i18n": { "en": { "title": "scPDSI in Northern China from 1470 to 2012", "ds_format": "xlsx", "ds_source": "
The selection of alternative indicator sequences includes 12 tree ring indicator sequences (11 width sequences, 1 oxygen isotope sequence) and 12 wet dry sequences (DWI); The sequence of Hassishan and Tianzhu sampling points was measured and established using dendrochronological methods.", "ds_quality": "
The correlation coefficient between the reconstructed warm season dry wet sequence and observational data from 1950 to 2012 was 0.89 (n=63, p<0.01), with a spatial correlation coefficient close to 0.6; The reconstruction results passed the significance level using statistical tests of RE, CE, R2, and RMSE; The reconstructed dry wet sequence identified drought events on an intergenerational scale over the past 530 years.", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_abstract": "
Understanding the dry wet changes in northern and central China under the background of global warming is of great scientific significance for in-depth research on historical climate events. We selected 24 climate proxy indicator sequences that were significantly correlated with the warm season (May September) dry wet changes (self calibrated Palmer Drought Index scPDSI) in the study area, and used nested principal component regression (nested PCR) to reconstruct the dry wet climate changes in the central and northern regions of China over the past 530 years (1470-2012),.", "ds_time_res": "年", "ds_acq_place": "Meteorological stations in northern China", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_projection": "", "ds_process_way": "
Using nested principal component regression (nested PCR), the selected tree rings, dry wet index, and Asian dry wet change sequences were integrated and reconstructed, and calibrated with scPDSI grid points; The mechanism of detecting extreme drought events using Time Series Overlay Analysis (SEA) method.", "ds_ref_instruction": "" } }, "submit_center_id": "ncdc", "data_level": 0, "license_type": "CC BY 4.0", "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "ds_topic_tags": [ "树轮", "干湿指数", "气候重建", "北大西洋涛动" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "自然地理学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "中国北方荒漠周边" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1470, 1471, 1472, 1473, 1474, 1475, 1476, 1477, 1478, 1479, 1480, 1481, 1482, 1483, 1484, 1485, 1486, 1487, 1488, 1489, 1490, 1491, 1492, 1493, 1494, 1495, 1496, 1497, 1498, 1499, 1500, 1501, 1502, 1503, 1504, 1505, 1506, 1507, 1508, 1509, 1510, 1511, 1512, 1513, 1514, 1515, 1516, 1517, 1518, 1519, 1520, 1521, 1522, 1523, 1524, 1525, 1526, 1527, 1528, 1529, 1530, 1531, 1532, 1533, 1534, 1535, 1536, 1537, 1538, 1539, 1540, 1541, 1542, 1543, 1544, 1545, 1546, 1547, 1548, 1549, 1550, 1551, 1552, 1553, 1554, 1555, 1556, 1557, 1558, 1559, 1560, 1561, 1562, 1563, 1564, 1565, 1566, 1567, 1568, 1569, 1570, 1571, 1572, 1573, 1574, 1575, 1576, 1577, 1578, 1579, 1580, 1581, 1582, 1583, 1584, 1585, 1586, 1587, 1588, 1589, 1590, 1591, 1592, 1593, 1594, 1595, 1596, 1597, 1598, 1599, 1600, 1601, 1602, 1603, 1604, 1605, 1606, 1607, 1608, 1609, 1610, 1611, 1612, 1613, 1614, 1615, 1616, 1617, 1618, 1619, 1620, 1621, 1622, 1623, 1624, 1625, 1626, 1627, 1628, 1629, 1630, 1631, 1632, 1633, 1634, 1635, 1636, 1637, 1638, 1639, 1640, 1641, 1642, 1643, 1644, 1645, 1646, 1647, 1648, 1649, 1650, 1651, 1652, 1653, 1654, 1655, 1656, 1657, 1658, 1659, 1660, 1661, 1662, 1663, 1664, 1665, 1666, 1667, 1668, 1669, 1670, 1671, 1672, 1673, 1674, 1675, 1676, 1677, 1678, 1679, 1680, 1681, 1682, 1683, 1684, 1685, 1686, 1687, 1688, 1689, 1690, 1691, 1692, 1693, 1694, 1695, 1696, 1697, 1698, 1699, 1700, 1701, 1702, 1703, 1704, 1705, 1706, 1707, 1708, 1709, 1710, 1711, 1712, 1713, 1714, 1715, 1716, 1717, 1718, 1719, 1720, 1721, 1722, 1723, 1724, 1725, 1726, 1727, 1728, 1729, 1730, 1731, 1732, 1733, 1734, 1735, 1736, 1737, 1738, 1739, 1740, 1741, 1742, 1743, 1744, 1745, 1746, 1747, 1748, 1749, 1750, 1751, 1752, 1753, 1754, 1755, 1756, 1757, 1758, 1759, 1760, 1761, 1762, 1763, 1764, 1765, 1766, 1767, 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771, 1772, 1773, 1774, 1775, 1776, 1777, 1778, 1779, 1780, 1781, 1782, 1783, 1784, 1785, 1786, 1787, 1788, 1789, 1790, 1791, 1792, 1793, 1794, 1795, 1796, 1797, 1798, 1799, 1800, 1801, 1802, 1803, 1804, 1805, 1806, 1807, 1808, 1809, 1810, 1811, 1812, 1813, 1814, 1815, 1816, 1817, 1818, 1819, 1820, 1821, 1822, 1823, 1824, 1825, 1826, 1827, 1828, 1829, 1830, 1831, 1832, 1833, 1834, 1835, 1836, 1837, 1838, 1839, 1840, 1841, 1842, 1843, 1844, 1845, 1846, 1847, 1848, 1849, 1850, 1851, 1852, 1853, 1854, 1855, 1856, 1857, 1858, 1859, 1860, 1861, 1862, 1863, 1864, 1865, 1866, 1867, 1868, 1869, 1870, 1871, 1872, 1873, 1874, 1875, 1876, 1877, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898, 1899, 1900, 1901, 1902, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "ds_contributors": [ { "true_name": "刘晶晶", "email": "", "work_for": "", "country": "" }, { "true_name": "苗运法", "email": "miaoyunfa@lzb.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "赵永涛", "email": "zhaoyt2018@lzb.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院", "country": "中国" }, { "true_name": "张孜越", "email": "zhangziyue22@mails.ucas.ac.cn", "work_for": "中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院", "country": "中国" } ], "ds_meta_authors": [ { "true_name": "刘晶晶", "email": "", "work_for": "", "country": "" } ], "ds_managers": [ { "true_name": "刘晶晶", "email": "", "work_for": "", "country": "" } ], "category": "气象" }