This dataset covers the northern region of China from 2021 to 2050 and estimates the possible trend of desertification under the future high emission scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). utilize CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5）–CESM（Community Earth System Model） The data from the future RCP8.5 scenario serves as initial and boundary conditions to drive the WRF4.2 (Weather Research & Forecasting Model version 4.2) model to simulate the desertification trend in northern China over the next 30 years (2021-2050).
The data source for the mode operation in this dataset is:
1. The data for CMIP5-CESM's future RCP8.5 scenario is taken from https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C1214110967-SCIOPS.html# ；
2. WRF4.2 mode download website https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources_new.php .
Evaluate the reproducibility of the WRF4.2 model for desertification in northern China during the historical period (1972-2000), and determine the model settings (including the selection of parameterization schemes for various physical processes, grid resolution, integration step size, etc.). Using data from CMIP5-CESM every 6 hours under the future RCP8.5 scenario as initial and boundary conditions, the WRF4.2 model was driven to conduct a downscaling simulation of regional climate dynamics in northern China for the next 30 years (2021-2050). Combined with the sand dune movement index and the historical period (1972-2000) average as a reference, the annual evolution trend of desertification in northern China was calculated.
Comparing the results of observation and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multimodal averaging, the WRF4.2 model simulates and observes basic climate elements more closely, and better reproduces the spatial heterogeneity of temperature changes; The WRF simulation results significantly reduced the error of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation in northern China. The WRF4.2 model has good reproducibility of basic climate elements and desertification trends in northern China over the past 29 years (1972-2000), and the uncertainty of predicting future desertification trends in northern China based on WRF4.2 is relatively small.
| # | number | name | type |
| 1 | 2020YFA0608400 | National key R & D plan |
This work is licensed under
CC BY 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License).
CSTR:11738.11.NCDC.DESERTIFICATION.DB7174.2026
10.12072/ncdc.desertification.db7174.2026
