Evolution Characteristics and Risk Prediction of Landslide–Debris Flow Hazard Chains under Climate Change: A Case Study of the Jiangjia Gully Catchment, Dongchuan, Yunnan
Abstract:Landslides and debris flows in mountainous regions often develop as cascading hazards controlled by the combined effects of rainfall, topography, sediment supply, soil moisture, and channel dynamics. This study focuses on the Jiangjia Gully catchment in Dongchuan, Yunnan Province, and integrates historical debris-flow records, rheological parameters, channel cross-section measurements, soil moisture and temperature observations, streamflow data, and meteorological monitoring data. The objectives are to investigate the coupled relationships among landslide-derived sediment supply, rainfall infiltration, and channel erosion and deposition, and to identify the key factors governing the initiation and evolution of landslide–debris flow hazard chains. A multi-source data-driven prediction model will then be developed to estimate hazard probability and determine critical triggering thresholds. The results are expected to improve the understanding of landslide–debris flow interactions and provide scientific support for dynamic monitoring, early warning, and risk mitigation in mountainous areas.
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CC BY 4.0 （知识共享 署名 4.0 国际许可协议）进行许可。
CSTR:11738.11.ncdc.ddfors.db7469.2026
10.12072/ncdc.ddfors.db7469.2026
